Exploring a Jonathan Kuminga Sign-and-Trade
Do the Hornets dip thier toes in the Kuminga sweepstakes?
After a shaky start to his playoff campaign, Jonathan Kuminga finished strongly, giving opposing front offices something to ponder. His future with the Golden State Warriors feels uncertain, and it could present an opportunity for another team to swoop in and bring him into their locker room. Could a change of scenery benefit this 22-year-old? Would the Hornets be wise to include themselves in the pool of interested teams?
If Golden State offers him a $7.9 million qualifying offer, he becomes a restricted free agent. This gives the Warriors the first right of refusal over any team submitting an offer sheet. Kuminga could also sign his one-year qualifying offer and become an unrestricted free agent in 2026. However, another possibility is a sign-and-trade. Anthony Slater and Marcus Thompson II reported this as a real option that the Warriors will explore this offseason.
The Mechanics of a Sign-and-Trade
If the Hornets want to acquire Jonathan Kuminga, they could use their mid-level exception as their offer sheet. Kuminga will demand more than $14.1 million, and even then, the Warriors would likely match. That path seems unlikely, and negotiating a sign-and-trade is likely how this pans out.
As mentioned in previous Offseason Guides, sign-and-trades, when met with certain criteria, can cause some complications.
Base-Year Compensation Criteria: Sign-and-Trade
A team signs its free agent with bird rights using 20% raises
The team is over the cap when signing the player
If these boxes get checked (it would), Kuminga’s outgoing salary is 50% of the actual contract. Let’s say the Warriors sign him to a $23 million contract; his outgoing salary would be $11.5 million. This has a notable consequence as the Hornets would be taking in his $23 million but could clear no more than $20.03 million ($11.5 million plus a flat $8.527 million padding). Figuring out the players and the salaries from Charlotte’s perspective would be the difficult part.
Let’s construct a potential deal between Charlotte and Golden State using this hypothetical. The Warriors could use a center, and Charlotte tried to trade one this past season. So let’s focus this on Mark Williams as the base of this transaction:
Kuminga signs a 3-year, $72.45 million contract ($23 / $24.15 / $25.3 million)
Charlotte Receives: Jonathan Kuminga
Golden State Receives: Mark Williams, Josh Green
This feels like Charlotte is giving up too much. It would be easier to stomach if it were a straight-up swap involving Williams and Kuminga. Unfortunately, the CBA would nix that because of trade-matching rules. Mark Williams’ $6.2 million contract would only allow for $12.8 million in return.1 In this hypothetical, Kuminga’s incoming salary is worth $23 million. In this instance, Charlotte would need to send out additional salary, and Green is the only guy who makes sense to fill that gap.
Could the Warriors send picks to Charlotte to create a sense of balance? Perhaps. This illustrates why crafting trades is difficult with all the moving parts and stipulations.
If you still think that’s too much to give up, then a reduced salary and the inclusion of just Josh Green for Kuminga could help mitigate the Base Year Compensation. Trading Green for Kuminga on a $20 million contract would do the trick.2 But that begs the question: does Kuminga get a higher salary than that? Can the Warriors get a better deal elsewhere? While I wouldn’t feel comfortable getting into a bidding war for Kuminga, I don’t decide the market.
Local Media Point of View
Sam Esfandiari covers the Warriors on the Light Years Podcast. He shared his thoughts on Kuminga and a potential exit from the Bay Area.
On Kuminga’s development:
Regarding Jonathan Kuminga's development with the Golden State Warriors, it's challenging to say definitively how much the team's competitive environment has played a role. However, it's likely been a significant factor. Kuminga entered the league as a very raw talent and hasn't had the same opportunity to freely explore his game as someone like Jalen Green in a different team context. Given the Warriors' consistent pursuit of championships during Kuminga's tenure, the emphasis has always been on him contributing to winning basketball. This pressure has likely resulted in fluctuations in his playing time and role.
Regarding Golden State’s S&T demands
Concerning a potential sign-and-trade involving the Warriors, I would anticipate they would be seeking players who can immediately contribute to their goal of competing at a high level during Steph Curry's prime. Alternatively, they might look for assets that could be used to acquire such players. Currently, the team could benefit from increased size and athleticism across multiple positions, as well as improved shooting. Finding players who meet these criteria isn't easy. If the Warriors had an opportunity to acquire a three-and-D wing or a stretch five capable of holding their own defensively, potentially allowing Kuminga to develop further, I believe they would strongly consider it.
Percentage Kuminga returns to the Warriors
As for the percentage chance of Kuminga being with Golden State in October, I'd say 25%.
Kuminga: The Player
One of the first questions Jeff Peterson has to answer revolves around the evaluation of Kuminga as a player. Does the front office feel that his situation and the system he played in factored into his up-and-down nature? While those feel like built-in excuses, one could argue that Kuminga needs a change of scenery to unlock more of his potential. We won’t get into a deep scout on Kuminga; that’ll only come if he’s in purple and teal.
Let’s first discuss the drawbacks. Playing alongside Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, and Jimmy Butler should enable a slasher like Kuminga to thrive. However, the fact that he hasn’t done so consistently raises questions about whether he has embraced his role. The gravity and passing ability of these players simplify the game. Evaluating the mental aspect of a player’s game is challenging, but I sense that his performance is affected by his understanding of the game and what it requires to think strategically. Additionally, he has shown little ability to space the floor with his shooting.
Flipping it over to the bright side, his athleticism and rim pressure are noteworthy. He averages almost four attempts per game within the restricted area, converting on 72% of those looks. Using him as a screener, cutter, and through transition plays is the best way to highlight his skills. Defensively, it’s more of a mixed bag. He has the versatility to guard two to three positions, but his impact has been underwhelming at times, especially considering his athleticism. I wouldn’t mark this as a clear positive, but there’s a baseline to work with.
Charles Lee would have to find ways to tap into his physical tools and include actions to get Kuminga downhill. If he wants to improve defensively, we’ve seen the impression Lee made on Miles Bridges this past season, and that should instill some confidence.
Verdict
The more I run through the scenarios, the less optimistic I feel about this specific transaction. Charlotte has limited assets to make a significant move like this, and the value of adding multiple players within the trade doesn’t feel right. Adding a player like Kuminga would also signal more moves, like a Miles Bridges trade. While I may be higher on JK than most, I can’t get past the value lost in a potential sign-and-trade. Maybe I’m missing a deal that would make more sense for Charlotte, like a double sign-and-trade with Mark Williams. But that triggers the “Poison Pill” provision that involves more financial hoops that I’m not ready to explain.
I’m placing a 10% chance that Kuminga lands in Charlotte this offseason.
That $12.8 million is calculated by multiplying his salary ($6.2 million) by 200% + $250,000.
The highest salary Kuminga could receive in a 1-for-1 swap for Green would be $22,194,667. Anything higher fails the trade.
Great breakdown Richie. Is certainly an interesting idea.
Great read Richie. Intriguing but like you said way too many moving parts and too early into the process to make Kuminga fit with this roster.