The Hornets' Offseason Guide
A comprehensive preview to Charlotte's free agency
Good Morning! The NBA Draft is just around the corner, but let’s peek into what’s in store for NBA Free Agency. If you want to review my pieces from the previous two seasons, the links are below.
Before releasing this newsletter, I ran a few things by
, the resident cap consultant for Buzz Beat. Let’s dig into the options for 2024 and see where the Hornets can get better.
📅 Key Dates
Sunday, June 30: At 6:00 p.m. EST, players can start negotiating with teams.1 As the moments and days pass, we get indications – usually through top reporters such as Adrian Wojnarowski or Shams Charania – where free agents will land. Although, nothing is official until the moratorium is over.
Saturday, July 6: At 12:01 p.m. EST, the moratorium period ends and you will start to see official news from teams that they’ve signed free agents. For restricted free agents and teams with the right of first refusal, the time starts ticking on this date, not prior.2
📝 Key Terms
Maximum Contract: The NBA has parameters on how much a player can earn. Experience in the league is the biggest indicator of how much one can receive. The NBA separates players into three different categories: (1) 0-6 years, (2) 7-9 years, and (3) 10+ years.
If a player has been in the league for 6 years or less, they can earn up to 25% of the cap.3 A maximum contract of 30% of the cap is designated for players with 7-9 years of experience.4 Lastly, a player with 10+ years can earn 35% of the salary cap.5
This may not be relevant for any of the Charlotte Hornets’ free agents, but it’s something to note.
Restricted Free Agent: Free agents either fall under unrestricted or restricted. There are additional complications with restricted free agents, so I figured I’d discuss that here. Teams with restricted free agents have the right of first refusal, allowing them to match offers from other teams. If that team doesn’t exercise that power, the player will move on to the new team.
There’s technically another option, although rare and risky. The restricted free agent could sign his qualifying offer – one that must’ve been submitted for him to become restricted in the first place – and play out the season on that one-year deal. This is the path Miles Bridges took this past season, playing on a one-year contract of $7.9 million. By doing this, he became an unrestricted free agent this summer.
Cap Holds: Think of cap holds as placeholders for current free agents that take up a portion of the team’s cap room. These do not disappear until a player is signed or the team renounces these free agents. Sometimes it’s not beneficial to renounce free agents as the team loses their bird rights; a mechanism that allows teams to re-sign their free agents and still exceed the salary cap.
Non-Guaranteed Contract: Most contracts are guaranteed, but there are some instances in which salaries are non-guaranteed until a certain criteria or date is met.6 A team can waive a non-guaranteed player without any consequence to their cap sheet.7
The Hornets have a few players with non-guaranteed deals:
Seth Curry: Guarantee date of June 27, 2024 ($4 million)
Aleksej Pokusevski: Guarantee date of July 8, 2024 ($2.3 million)
Bryce McGowens: Guarantee date of July 18, 2024 ($2.2 million)
Dāvis Bertāns: Gurantee date of January 10, 2025 ($16 million)8
JT Thor’s $1.9 million contract is technically non-guaranteed but the Hornets would have to enact the option on his fourth season. Once that occurs, they could waive him with no penalty. Also, Charlotte could trade him once they exercise his option, but not before. I think it would be wise for Jeff Peterson and the front office to invoke the team option and then go from there.
Charlotte’s Outlook
The projected salary cap is $141 million, with the luxury tax line set at $172 million. When factoring in all the contracts — guaranteed or not — the roster stands at 14 players before the NBA Draft.9 Calculating the current salaries, the cap holds for the 6th overall pick, and current free agents, Charlotte would exceed the cap.
The organization may want to operate as an “over the cap” team to access the standard mid-level exception of $12.9 million. If the team decided to renounce its free agents and/or waive players to get under the cap, they would also be forgoing the ability to use this standard mid-level exception. For clarification, the available exceptions factor into calculating whether a team is below or above the cap. While player salaries could dip below the $141 million, if the added exceptions put them above that mark, they would still be acting as an “over the cap” team.10
The organization doesn’t have many free agents but will have decisions to make on several players with non-guaranteed deals. The headline name for the Hornets is Miles Bridges, who elicits mixed emotions among the Charlotte community. While he’s projected to receive over $20 million annually, his current cap hold is at $15.1 million. While there will be other minor moves, it’ll likely be Charlotte’s most significant offseason move if he's re-signed.
The Situation with Miles Bridges
There’s no doubt that Miles Bridges is a talented basketball player who has shown hints of improvement throughout his career. But with over a year without basketball, his springy agility took a step back this past season. His downhill driving, highlight dunks, and overall bounce were visibly lacking. This often resulted in him settling for midrange shots, instead of making it to the rim.11 If he ever wants to regain his impact as an on-ball playmaker, he must return to his pre-suspension athleticism.
If Charlotte were to re-sign Bridges, it would likely creep close to the $25 million range — which is a lot considering his past transgressions. Charlotte could exceed the cap with this projected salary because they have his bird rights. Miles owes a lot to the franchise for sticking with him and he should be fully aware that he is on his final straw.
Sign-and-Trade Scenario
If the goal is to get a return for Bridges, then there’s an option to execute a sign-and-trade. However, implementing this course of action will have some minor hurdles.
There are plenty of things to consider when negotiating sign-and-trades. First up, these contracts must be at least three seasons and can’t extend longer than a four-year contract. Also, Bridges would only be able to receive 5% raises, unlike the 8% by staying in Charlotte. If he signed for $25 million, he’d receive $1.25 million raises instead of $2 million from the Hornets. While that doesn’t seem like a huge difference, that adds up throughout the length of a contract.12 There’s just less incentive from a player’s perspective regarding the money, and unlike a typical trade, all parties must sign off.
Furthermore, the Base Year Compensation (BYC) could provide an additional snag. For this exercise, we will use the aforementioned starting salary of $25 million for Bridges. His outgoing salary — because he received a 20% raise and the team has eclipsed the cap — would be $12.5 million.13 The Hornets could take back the outgoing salary plus by a flat $7.7 million. In the hypothetical, this number equates to approximately $20 million. However, the team acquiring him would still assume that $25 million on their books.
Also, by rule, teams above the first apron ($178 million) can’t acquire a player through a sign-and-trade.14 This includes teams that would exceed the first apron immediately following the sign-and-trade. While not impossible, it does throw a small wrench into the plans for this type of move.
Dāvis Bertāns: Assessing the Options
The case to keep Dāvis Bertāns will be debated in Charlotte. At 6’10,” he provides a much-needed skill as a movement shooter. His ability to convert three-point shots with a high degree of difficulty is something to be noted. Outside of his deflections, nothing is too appealing about his defense.
The discourse surrounding him is more centered around his contract than his ability. Technically, Bertāns can terminate his $16 million contract, which would remove Charlotte’s decision altogether. While this is extremely unlikely, this would be the only route that the Hornets would completely clear his contract off the books.15 If Charlotte decides to waive him before 5:00 pm on January 7, they will shed a large portion of his partially guaranteed salary
If the idea is to get something in return for him, he could be a valuable piece in a trade. However, only the guaranteed portion at the time of the transaction would be used for salary-matching purposes. This subtlety could make it tougher to move as the team acquiring him would still assume the $16 million.
The question becomes: What would Charlotte achieve by clearing the space? Would they use that space to sign a free agent? Would they take on an undesirable contract to acquire a future pick? While I believe those are feasible options, it would also have to come in conjunction with other moves to make sense.
While things are fluid, I have no real preference for any decision surrounding Bertāns. Charlotte wouldn’t lose all of their flexibility by retaining him and it still provides the option for a midseason trade. Additionally, he adds a component missing from the Hornets: movement shooting.
Should Charlotte upgrade Nick Richards?
Nick Richards isn’t a free agent but could be a guy that is rumored in trade discussions. Richards stepped up as a starter in 51 games this past season because of the back injury to Mark Williams.
While the health of Williams is paramount in the consideration to move Richards, the two have redundant games. Having two pick-and-roll bigs who can rebound and contest rim attempts seems good, but the versatility in exposing opponents is lacking. I’ve long theorized that Charlotte would be better off with a backup five that could offer a change-up over the consistency each one brings when spelled for each other. However, Charles Lee — a disciple of Mike Budenholzer — has worked frequently with drop-style bigs, something that both Williams and Richards would bring on the defensive end.
The difficulty in trading Richards would be his meager $5 million contract. He would almost certainly have to be attached to another asset to bring anything of value back.
🎯 Potential Targets
Before getting into specific names, let’s address the needs of Charlotte. Irrespective of position, here are the four skills (in no particular order) I’d prioritize for the Hornets:
Self-Creation: There aren’t many players on the roster that can generate a shot for themselves. LaMelo Ball, and to a lesser extent, Tre Mann, Miles Bridges, and Brandon Miller, are the only guys who you feel somewhat comfortable trying to produce points without the help of teammates and off-ball action. While Charlotte’s offense might still need to score points based on a committee, it’s nice to have talent that can get a bucket when things break down. This checkbox might be the hardest to find in the market.
Shooting: This skill has a domino effect on so many things in basketball. Even the aforementioned self-creation is hampered when defenses can cramp driving lanes because the floor isn’t spaced with shooters. Charlotte has to work extra hard to get off good looks and drive-and-kicks are less effective if there aren’t competent shooters waiting for the pass. Charlotte ranked 21st in three-point shooting and 27th in effective field goal percentage this past season.
Defensive Size and Versatility: Generally speaking, the defense has been inadequate for the Charlotte Hornets in recent memory. It’s been a combination of personnel, defensive principles, and a focus slanted toward the other end of the court. Too often are teams able to get into the paint with little resistance, forcing the defensive rotations into early action.
Winning Background: While this isn’t going to solve everything, the locker room needs more players who have come from winning cultures. It’s also one of the biggest draws in the hiring of Charles Lee. Players and coaches who have been there before will be able to show the younger guys the ropes and hold each other accountable. It will only breed competition and habits that produce winners.
UFA/Player Option | Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, 31 years old, Wing (6’5” / 204 lb.)
Caldwell-Pope has a player option for $15.4 million that he’s rumored to decline. I almost mentioned his name in a midseason Buzz Beat episode but refrained as I thought he’d opt-in. While this is likely the least realistic name on the list, there’s still a path where the team could offer Caldwell-Pope a competitive deal. Signing him would certainly mean the end of Bridges and his tenure in the Queen City.
Caldwell-Pope is a very seamless fit on any roster because of what he brings to the floor. He also checks a lot of the boxes that I previously mentioned as priorities for the organization. While not much of a rim-finisher, KCP adds perimeter shooting from both the corner (42.1%) and above the break (39.6%). While Denver’s passing is contagious, he’s more than willing to make the extra pass too. Where he’s going to make most fans giddy is his presence on the defensive end. He can comfortably defend three positions and works well both on- and off-ball. His deflections and interceptions on the weak side are a standout skill.
The Nuggets possess KCP’s bird rights and can offer more years than Charlotte. However, Charlotte might feel comfortable proposing more overall money as Denver wants to avoid approaching the second apron in future seasons. The predicament for the Hornets is they often have to overpay incoming free agents to offset their lackluster performance.
The organization has the means to offer him something along the lines of a 3-year contract, eclipsing the $60 million mark. Some would equate this to a Nic Batum-like contract and I can’t fully agree with that sentiment. Batum’s contract accounted for 23% of the salary cap while this proposed contract would only take up 14% of the cap. Regardless, the onus and importance of making moves on the margin rise drastically for the front office if they were to go this route.
Feasibility Score: 2.5/10
UFA | Naji Marshall, 26 years old, Forward (6’6” / 220 lb.)
Naji Marshall would fit as a nice, complementary piece on Charlotte. He’s an active player who can play both ends of the court and wouldn’t garner a huge contract.
Offensively, he’s a low-usage guy but has some skill with the ball in his hands. For his position, he has no problem making plays for others. He generated 5.3 points per game through his assists. Marshall also likes to get downhill and while right-handed, has a disposition to jump off his right foot and finish with his left hand. He still has some inconsistencies finishing within the restricted area though. The swing skill will be his three-point shot. With this potential signing, you’d be banking on him replicating the 38% he shot from behind the arc this past season.
On the other end of the court, Marshall spends more time guarding out on the perimeter but can defend some power forwards too. His steals, off-ball anticipation, and defensive rebounding will always keep him in the conversation as a rotational player.
Feasibility Score: 8/10
RFA | Precious Achiuwa, 24 years old, Big (6’8” / 243 lb.)
It’s always trickier with restricted free agents as the Knicks will be able to match any offer that Charlotte puts on the table for Achiuwa.
After a slow start in Manhattan, Achiuwa played some pivotal minutes for the Knicks — both in the regular season and playoffs — and under normal circumstances they should match. Although, what can’t be guaranteed is consistent minutes within the New York rotation. If Isaiah Hartenstein is re-signed and Mitchell Robinson is still a part of their plans moving forward, it does seem like that could shift the priorities for New York.
Achuiwa isn't your prototypical big and his versatility allows him to defend both forwards and centers. He’s the type of deviation from Mark Williams that would grant Charlotte some flexibility in their big rotation. Where you are going to get the most out of Achiuwa is through cuts and following a pick-and-roll. His athleticism allows him to break and slip into space with ease. You don’t want the ball in his hands too often and his shot is still a work in progress. But, he can also pick up easy buckets through the way of offensive boards. Since February 1, Precious Achiuwa ranked 8th in the NBA in total putback points (56). If you’re buying into his ability to play both the 4 and 5, maybe you feel more comfortable in entertaining trades for Nick Richards.
Feasibility Score: 6/10
UFA | Derrick Jones Jr., Forward, 27 years old, (6’7” / 210 lb.)
Despite being on the verge of losing to Boston in the NBA Finals, Derrick Jones Jr. had a breakout year and played a central role in Dallas’s success. He was awesome in the Western Conference Semi-Finals vs. Oklahoma City and came up big on multiple occasions in the series clincher.
Jones Jr. benefitted from playing with Luka Dončić and Kyrie Irving, but those same supplemental skills would fit well with almost any roster. He’s going to be featured on cuts, as a roll-man, and spotting up in the corners. He doesn’t need the ball in his hands for him to be effective and most of his energy will be spent on the opposite end of the court. Opponents scored 3.6 points per 100 possessions less when Jones Jr. was playing, compared to when he was off the court. Of players that logged 1,000 minutes for Dallas, this difference ranked first on the team.
Defensively, Jones Jr. spent most of his time on primary ball-handlers, a void that needs to be filled for the Hornets. While LaMelo Ball is your primary and offensive engine, it’s hard to expend that same type of energy on defense. Ball’s lack of resistance at the point of attack and his instincts in the passing lanes make him better suited as an off-ball defender.
Jones Jr. has bounced around the league and it feels like he found a home with the Mavericks. The allure of playing for a contender outweighs the pitch the Hornets can make, but Charlotte has something working in their favor. The Mavs do not have DJJ’s bird rights and their best option would be the $5.2 million taxpayer mid-level exception. DJJ could be reunited with Grant Williams, Seth Curry, and Josh Longstaff, an assistant coach when he was with the Bulls if the Hornets use the financial advantage they have over Dallas.
Feasibility Score: 3.5/10
🐝 Thank you so much for reading! The way Charlotte approaches the NBA Draft and especially Free Agency will be telling. Will they take the patient approach and acquire young pieces or attempt to sign a proven culture-setter? Time will tell.
Be on the lookout for a new Buzz Beat episode this week as we partake in a Mock Draft with other podcasters selecting the 5 teams in front of Charlotte. We deliberate and try to come to a consensus.
The day following the NBA Finals, teams are permitted to negotiate contract terms with players who finished the season on the roster. This is new in 2024.
If a team receives an offer sheet before noon, a team has until 11:59 p.m. EST on the following day to match. If an offer sheet comes on or after noon EST, the team will have until 11:59 p.m. EST two days following.
25% of $141,000,000 is a starting salary of $35,250,000.
30% of $141,000,000 is a starting salary of $42,300,000.
35% of $141,000,000 is a starting salary of $49,350,000.
These dates can be pushed back if both parties consent.
Unlike non-guaranteed contracts, if you waive a player with a guaranteed contract, that contract is still included in the team salary.
If Bertāns isn’t waived by January 7, he will be owed the full $16 million.
The 14 players under contract: Ball, Bertāns, G.Williams, Miller, Martin, Micic, Richards, Mann, M.Williams, Curry, Smith Jr., Pokuševski, McGowens, and Thor.
The mechanics and rules of the NBA salary cap are overly complicated but think of this simplified equation: Salary + Exceptions = Overall Payroll.
Bridges attempted 140 non-paint midrange shots in 2023-24. If you combine all of his previous seasons, he attempted 162.
In raises alone, that would be $10 million over 5 seasons in Charlotte, compared to $5 million over 4 seasons through a sign-and-trade.
If the Hornets are under the salary cap (after the signing of Bridges), then BYC wouldn’t factor into this S&T equation.
The projected crop of teams that would fall in this category would be the Lakers, Grizzlies, Heat, Bucks, Suns, Celtics, Timberwolves, and Nuggets.
Bertāns could be traded to a team with space too, but that seems just as unlikely.
Good stuff Richie