Constructing Hypothetical Trades

Setting up future moves from Charlotte before February 8

Jan 28, 2024

🐝 Good Morning! The Hornets’ season continues its downward spiral, but the NBA’s Trade Deadline seems to get people giddy with excitement and hope. We haven’t put out a written post in a while but we can stick with the philosophy of quality over quantity. Now feels like as good a time as ever to send a publication to your inbox, and I’m glad you are reading and supporting Buzz Beat!

With the recent trade of Terry Rozier to Miami, there seems to be a different approach in this trade cycle. While you can’t judge the new owners Rick Schnall and Gabe Plotkin off one transaction, moving a fan-favorite 16 days before the deadline isn’t something you would have seen under Michael Jordan. The nature of the trade also signals that Charlotte is trying to retool their roster.1

When evaluating the trade with the Heat, it was about as much as you could’ve expected. The exact framework was suggested in our most recent episode, less than 24 hours before the deal.

Maybe you could’ve quibbled over adding a young player like Nikola Jović but that would’ve also required an additional outgoing salary from Charlotte. The $25 million in cap space that you gain this offseason and the future protected first-round pick is beneficial. The pick will become unprotected in 2028.2 The organization and Kyle Lowry have no intentions of playing in purple and teal.

This deal doesn’t feel like it’s one you complete in isolation. It sets up the team for future moves over the next week and a half. With that said, I’ve compiled a few trades that Charlotte could look to accomplish.

P.J. Washington to Oklahoma City

The Thunder could stand pat at the deadline and it would make total sense. They’ve done a great job of balancing youth development and competing at a high level with MVP-Dark Horse, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

If Charlotte plans on retaining Miles Bridges in the offseason, could that open the door to trades involving P.J. Washington? Even though he recently signed a very reasonable, three-year contract this past offseason, his play has been disappointing on the whole. At the same time, he is coming off a 43-point performance against the Jazz (ties career-high), and striking while the iron is hot feels appropriate.

Instead of the usual links to Dallas, let’s try one involving the Thunder.

The Sell: This one feels a tad unnecessary for the Thunder as Isaiah Joe has been very important to the Thunder’s success this season. Go look at those On/Off stats for the 24-year-old out of Arkansas and you’ll see why Oklahoma City fans have no desire to see his name included in trades. But P.J. Washington would fit perfectly into the Thunder’s drive-and-kick offense. Washington would feast on the open looks created by Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams and his ability to beat closeouts would only enhance the advantage against a rotating defense. Plus, he provides versatility on the defensive end that would only secure him more minutes on a playoff-bound team.

For Charlotte, they’d be getting one of the best three-point shooters in Joe. The Hornets lack a pure, dead-eye perimeter shot-maker, and Joe would fill that void. He’s shooting 40.8% on above-the-break threes and 48.1% on corner looks — both hovering around the 85th percentile. Although, he’s not just a guy who stands around the arc waiting for a pass to come his way. This season, his cutting ability has unquestionably stood out and that meshes well with LaMelo Ball’s ability to anticipate open gaps in the paint.3

Joe, while undersized, has improved on the defensive end as well. Where he’d be positioned in the wing rotation and how he’d fit in lineups beside Ball and Miller, remains to be seen.

This trade feels fair and tempting for both sides, but ultimately I think Sam Presti would be the one that would have second thoughts.

Bridges to Phoneix

Former guest of the podcast, Gerald Bourguet of PHNX Suns, reported that the Suns have a strong interest in Miles Bridges. Trading Bridges has plenty of complications, including the potential public relations headache that comes with the acquisition of the 25-year-old.4 Also, because Bridges is playing on his qualifying offer and has bird rights at the end of the season, he has to consent to any trade. Furthermore, any team acquiring him understands that he’s on an expiring contract and his bird rights won’t carry over.5

With those constraints, the Sun’s financial situation, and the limited assets, it was difficult to find value in starting conversations with Phoneix. But if the goal is to gain something before Bridges potentially leaves Charlotte for nothing, you have to be willing to concede.6

The Sell: Of the “tradeable” players on Phoneix’s roster, Nassir Little has some intrigue. He flashed some signs of life in Portland but has yet to fully turn the corner while in the Valley of the Sun.7 Despite some of the injuries, Little still has the athleticism to get up off the floor. He is a downhill player, finding ways to get to the rim in any fashion. Little is converting on close to 70% of his attempts within the restricted area and has no issues going through contact. That same physicality, and his wingspan, translate to the defensive boards. Charlotte could use more players who have a desire to snag opponent misses.

While he doesn’t have the playmaking or the consistent three-point shooting, you’d be banking on the potential of the 23-year-old. Watanabe and Thor are included to balance the roster spots and money; Little for Bridges doesn’t work on its own.

While Bridges may be more willing to consent to a move to Phoenix, they aren’t an ideal trade partner with their lackluster return options. However, if the goal is to cut ties with Bridges, this deal makes some sense and allows Charlotte to move forward while gaining something.

Bridges to Utah

Jake Fischer of Yahoo! Sports noted that the Jazz have explored a potential move for Miles Bridges. Just a sense, but this seems like an organization that Bridges would enact his veto powers. And even if he didn’t, would they feel confident they could bring him back in the offseason? From Charlotte’s perspective, it’s a team that has plenty of options to incorporate into a trade. Sexton and Clarkson have been labeled as “available,” but let’s take a different route with some upside guys.

The Sell: I considered including Kris Dunn instead of Talen Horton-Tucker in this hypothetical move. Considering Dunn’s role in Utah, it seems they’d be less willing to give him up. They need more help at point guard, not less. While Charlotte would love to have Dunn’s point-of-attack defense and his ability to deflect passes for quick change of possession, he’s better suited for a team that needs help right now. Maybe he’s someone they can target in the offseason.

Horton-Tucker is an interesting young player who has plenty of tools but has fallen out of Utah’s main rotation. At 6’4” and 234 pounds, he’s a guy that you can let operate with the ball in his hands. While he is still improving at the rim, Horton-Tucker is a downhill playmaker, averaging close to 10 drives per game. His most translatable skill might be his passing. He’s going to create plenty of high-quality looks heading toward the paint out of pick-an-rolls, from second-side action, and through transition opportunities. Could you convert Horton-Tucker to a full-time second-unit point guard? I believe so.

Brice Sensabaugh has spent the majority of his rookie season with the Salt Lake City Stars, where he’s putting up 19 points on 48% shooting. He was billed as a difficult-shotmaker out of Ohio State and displayed impact as a midrange shooter. Don’t ask me why, but seeing that on the scouting report always turns my head. He still needs to find his footing as a defender and that will be an area of growth moving forward.

If you can be patient, acquiring one of Utah’s many first-round picks is the prize. Including youth and a 2028 first-round selection might be a non-starter for the Jazz but the outgoing pick from the Hornets tilts the balance. While it’s a second-rounder, the instant gratification from being able to draft two offseasons earlier could make the difference. Maybe this trade can be completed without either pick.

Nick Richards

Scouring the league for teams needing center help, e.g., Houston and New Orleans, I found myself struggling to formulate a balanced trade. One team was either lacking real moveable options or it required one side to go “all-in” for a bigger piece.

Also, does it make sense to trade Nick Richards with the uncertainty of Mark Williams?8 Richards, like Washington, is coming off a career game vs. the Jazz and has been Charlotte’s starting center since mid-December. He signed a very team-friendly contract, $15 million over three seasons, and has a clear and defined role. He’s going to block shots on one end and roll hard to the rim on the other. Don’t expect Richards to be traded unless it’s part of a larger deal.

Kyle Lowry and Gordon Hayward

You rarely have two players on a roster that single-handedly clear $60 million off the books in one offseason. The approach leading up to February 8 will feel very similar for both players. Mitch Kupchak will see what these two names can return in a trade before even discussing the possibility of a buyout. I think Lowry is the top priority as he was a salary-filler in the trade for Rozier. Lowry has yet to play for Charlotte and it looks like it’ll stay that way. The front office wants to respect his wishes as a veteran and will search high and low to find a trade partner.

The Hornets shouldn’t feel forced to make a move just for the sake of relocating these two veterans. You can always wait until the offseason — where teams might be more willing to shift directions — to use that same cap space to take on contracts and picks. The options feel more limited midway through the season.

Thanks so much for reading! The Rozier trade is not something the Hornets would have done with MJ as owner. It seems like a lane has been chosen and lays the foundation for at least one more move before the NBA Trade Deadline. It would mean a lot if you could share this piece with a Hornets fan or promote it on social media.

For whatever reason, Mitch Kupchak was very hesitant about using the word rebuild.

There’s a scenario in which Charlotte would know the fate of the 2028 pick earlier than most would expect. I tried to explain this, but Miami owes the Thunder a lottery-protected pick in 2025. If the Heat happen to miss out on the playoffs next season, then that pick would be conveyed as an unprotected 2026 first-round pick to OKC. Thus, Charlotte would automatically get that 2028 first-round pick because Miami can’t owe first-round picks in consecutive drafts.

LaMelo Ball averages 5.8 rim assists/100 possessions. That ranks 5th best in the NBA (minimum 500 minutes).

Miles Bridges has a February 20 court date, just 12 days following the NBA Trade Deadline.

Bird rights allow teams to re-sign their free agents by going over the cap and up to the player’s maximum salary.

Bridges, understandably, has stated on multiple occasions that he wants to stay in the Queen City. Not sure what advantage he would gain by saying the opposite

As of late January, Nassir Little has registered 11 DNP-CDs.

Mark Williams has missed 25 of the last 26 games with a back contusion with no sign of a clear return date.