The Hive Five | Vol. 2
Here are five things that have caught my attention following a 6-14 start
This is the second volume of a new series, The Hive Five, which will be released monthly. In this recurring feature, I will look back at the previous month and the trends I’ve noticed on the court. Think Zach Lowe’s 10 Things, but Hornets-centric.
Previous: Vol. 1
1. Gamebreaker: Transition Defense
Tempo and transition offense were mentioned in the preseason edition of The Hive Five, but that hasn’t translated over to the first 20 games of the season. Whether it’s due to a lack of forced turnovers or health, Charlotte hasn’t been able to capitalize on their supposed desire to push the pace.
However, their inability to prevent opponents from scoring easy transition buckets is more concerning. For a team with little margin for error, they need to focus on the small details to have any chance of staying competitive. That's why their rebounding on both ends and low defensive foul rate are key to keeping them in games.
They’ve never been world-beaters in transition defense, but it’s been glaringly painful to watch in recent weeks. For reference, Charlotte’s opponents ranked 13th in frequency of possessions started by a transition play and 22nd in points per 100 transition possessions through November 12.1 From that point onward, teams are now 3rd in frequency and 10th in points per 100 transition possessions.
While the Hornets like to crash the glass on offense, they need to be mindful of when that puts them in tough spots during transition defense. However, the bigger problem has been turnovers. Using the same date filters, the Hornets ranked 11th in the league for limiting live-ball turnovers. Since November 12, they’ve dropped to 20th.
It’s the attention to detail (or lack thereof) that will swing games for this team.
2. Kon’s Crafty Pivot Foot
There’s a lot to note with rookie Kon Knueppel, and he needs as much praise as possible. His craft, balance, strength, feel for the game, and three-point shooting have jumped off the screen.2 I am going to spotlight his pump fake, which is sometimes sold so much that his pivot foot almost lifts off the floor. If it happened once, it wouldn’t be worth noting. But this has become a trend for Knueppel, with some fakes more exaggerated than others.
Whether it’s coming off dribble-handoffs, slipping screens to the wing, or spacing to the gaps, Knueppel will create space for himself. And in those moments, he’s quick to trigger and has no issue with getting up three-pointers (8.4 per game).
With volume and efficiency, his perimeter shooting is on top of the scouting report, leading to some hard closeouts. Knowing that, K2 uses that to his advantage with this quirky move. He sometimes uses it to get a better look on a sidestep three or to drive into the paint to attack the scrambling defense.
While just 20 years old, some of his moves and counters feel like he’s been in the league for 5+ seasons.
3. Controlling the Boards
You have probably seen the term “Four Factors” when searching statistical pages. It consists of (1) effective field goal percentage, (2) free-throw rate, (3) turnover percentage, and (4) rebounding percentage. These can sometimes be correlated with winning basketball teams. Charlotte has actually done well with opponent free-throw rate, but their rebounding on both ends of the court has been a pleasant surprise.
When looking at last year’s team, the Hornets were stout on the offensive glass with players like Moussa Diabaté, Mark Williams, Nick Richards, and Josh Okogie putting pressure on the boards. However, last season, the Hornets struggled to limit teams to one shot. Per Cleaning the Glass, opponents rebounded 28.1% off their misses in non-garbage time minutes.
This season, we’ve seen a shift in mentality and physicality on the defensive boards, with Charlotte tied for 1st in defensive rebounding percentage. When zooming in a little more, the Bugs are one of the best teams in recovering two-point misses — especially from the intermediate zones. For a team that likes to play drop coverage with Kalkbrenner, they entice a good chunk of midrange attempts. They are tops in the league in recovering misses in the short midrange and third in snagging rebounds when opponents miss from the long midrange.
The increase in defensive rebounding can be linked to several factors. I believe playing more conservatively on the back line allows defenders to stay with their man and box out. The team also has players who excel at rebounding for their position, including Ball, Mann, Knueppel, and Bridges. And while Kalkbrenner isn’t a dominant presence on the glass, he’s effective at moving opposing bigs out of the paint, enabling others to swoop in. He’s the perfect example of a player whose defensive rebounding numbers don’t match his impact. When he’s on the court, opponents’ offensive rebounding percentage drops by 3.2%.
While there haven’t been a ton of misses by opponents (that’s a different issue), it’s been a collective effort on the defensive boards.
4. (Un)Clutch
Judging by the last two games, you would think Charlotte is the best team in crunch time. The Hornets held off Chicago’s second-half comeback and then forced overtime vs. Toronto before officially winning. In those two games, Charlotte had a +21 in 9 minutes of clutch time.
The NBA defines clutch basketball as a game within 5 points, in the final 5 minutes of a game. Factoring in these parameters, the Hornets have totaled 36 minutes of clutch time this season, a number that ranks in the middle of the pack. However, they have posted a 2-5 (.286) record in these games. Here are some of the concerning stats during this time:
41.4 FG% (18th)
1.7 FTA (28th)
66.7 FT% (26th)
1.4 TOV (24th)
4.9 PITP Allowed (27th)
5. Guard-to-Guard Screens
I’ve been monitoring this since the first handful of games. I knew the Hornets loved to use their guards as screeners, but I was unaware that they led the league in that type of action.3
Charlotte has switched up their offensive alignment this season, with their big man typically stationed in the dunker spot. That doesn’t mean they don’t set screens; they do. However, the team has found success with Knueppel, James, and Miller setting screens in the middle of the floor. One of their oft-used sets places three players along the baseline, and a player (usually Knueppel) around the top of the key to set a screen for Ball or Sexton. Here, he can slip to the wing while the ball-handler gets downhill. Or, he can roll into the space around the free-throw line and work the four-on-three situations. With Kon as the roll-man, he’s scored 1.96 points per possession, placing him in the 99th percentile.4
And this isn’t the only way Knueppel (or others) are used. They love to leverage the gravity of Ball and Sexton on drives with a ghost screen to the opposite wing. The defense either has to “stay home,” allowing for less resistance on drives, or show two to the ball allowing for the swing pass across the court. These options allow this team to be more dynamic, and it really reaches its potential when everyone is healthy.
🐝 The third round of The Hive Five will be out at the beginning of January, following another month of basketball.
These numbers are coming from Cleaning the Glass.
Knueppel has made 69 three-pointers through his first 20 games, the most ever for a rookie. His efficiency of 41.3% also ranks 10th over the first 20 games (min. 75 3PA).
As of November 15, guards on the Hornets have set 707 on-ball picks this season, 338 more than any other team in the league (h/t All City NBA). That number has obviously changed, but I don’t doubt they still hold that title.
They run about 1.4 possessions with him as a roll-man. This clearly doesn’t match up to the volume of centers, but it’s a solid number for guards/forwards.
Great insight Richie!