Free Agency Rundown

Detailing the Free Agency period for the Charlotte Hornets

Good Morning! Last week, the Charlotte Hornets selected Brandon Miller with the second overall pick and now it’s time to shift our focus to NBA Free Agency. Let’s dig in!

📅 Key Dates

Friday, June 30: At 6:00 p.m. EST, players can start negotiating with teams. As the moments and days pass, we get indications – usually through Adrian Wojnarowski and Shams Charania – where free agents will land. Although, nothing is official until the moratorium is over.

Thursday, July 6: At 12:01 p.m. EST, the moratorium period ends and you will start to see official news from teams that they’ve signed free agents. For restricted free agents, the time starts ticking for teams to match opposing offer sheets.

📝 Key Terms

Maximum Contract: The NBA has parameters on how much a player can earn. Experience in the league is the biggest indicator of how much one can receive. The NBA separates players into three different categories: (1) 0-6 years, (2) 7-9 years, and (3) 10+ years. 

If a player has been in the league for 6 years or less, they can earn up to 25% of the cap.¹ A maximum contract of 30% of the cap is designated for players with 7-9 years of experience.² Lastly, a player with 10+ years can earn 35% of the salary cap.³

The player’s previous team also has an advantage in that they can offer 8% raises compared to 5% raises from any other team.

Restricted Free Agent: Free agents either fall under unrestricted or restricted. There are more complications with restricted free agents, so I figured I’d discuss that here. Teams that possess restricted free agents have the “right of first refusal,” allowing them to match offers from other teams.⁴ If an opposing team submits an offer sheet to a player during the moratorium period, the original team has until 11:59 p.m. EST on July 7 to exercise its right to match. If that team doesn’t exercise that power, then the player will move on to the new team.

There’s technically another option, although rare and risky. The restricted free agent could sign his qualifying offer – one that must’ve been submitted for him to become restricted in the first place – and play out the season on that one-year deal. Following that one-year contract, the player would then become an unrestricted free agent the following summer.

Cap Holds: Think of cap holds as placeholders for current free agents that take up a portion of the team’s cap room. These do not go away until a player is signed or the team decides to renounce these free agents. Sometimes it’s not beneficial to renounce free agents as the team loses their bird rights; a mechanism that allows teams to re-sign their free agents and still go over the salary cap.

The Hornets’ Situation

The Hornets have an interesting offseason that includes decisions that must be made with restricted free agents P.J. Washington and Miles Bridges and unrestricted free agents, Dennis Smith Jr. and Kelly Oubre. The likelihood that all four are back is very slim as they will also look to add others from outside the organization.

The projected cap for the 2023-24 season is $136,021,000 with the projected tax line just north of $165 million. When calculating the current salaries and the cap holds, the Hornets exceed the cap by $22 million. Even though the current salaries on the books exceed the cap, that doesn’t prevent Charlotte from acquiring or retaining players.

As seen below, the Hornets have 12 rostered players, including both first-round draft pick’s cap holds. JT Thor’s contract is non-guaranteed but it’s hard to see a situation in which Charlotte would waive the forward after showing promising signs post-All-Star break.

There are other exceptions that allow them to bring in free agents. The likely avenue is through something called the non-taxpayer Mid-Level Exception (MLE). This would be available to the Hornets as they are over the cap but under the tax. This year, that exception is worth $12,405,000 and can be used to sign a free agent.⁵ However, once a team uses even part of this exception, it has to keep itself below a hard cap ($172 million) for the whole season.

While it’s not as appealing as the MLE, the Hornets also have the Bi-Annual Exception available that can be used for contracts of just two seasons, starting at $4.5 million with a maximum of a 5% raise. It can be used alongside the MLE, as long as the team stays under the $172,294,000 apron.

Retaining Their Own?

Miles Bridges: This time last year, Miles Bridges was due for a sizable pay increase. On the eve of free agency, Bridges was arrested for domestic violence, resulting in him missing the 2022-23 season as an unsigned free agent.

There’s an inherited risk in bringing Bridges back as he hasn’t played basketball in over a year and has the task of rebuilding his image.⁶ When he did play last in 2021-22, he was Charlotte’s most improved player. His game evolved to where he was tasked with more ball-handling duties and he did not disappoint. He could also use his ability to get to the rim to make plays for others. His combination of shooting, rebounding, on-ball skill, and athleticism makes his intrigue as a player plain to see. Unfortunately, it’s not that simple and his price range still feels like a mystery.

Charlotte will see what offer sheets come in from other teams before determining if it’s reasonable to match. Or, they could just negotiate a team-friendly, prove-it deal and see how things pan out.

P.J. Washington: Charlotte had the opportunity to extend Washington last off-season but decided to let the season play out. He now enters restricted free agency with the uncertainty of opposing offer sheets.

P.J. Washington has proven to be a very versatile stretch forward throughout his four seasons in Charlotte. While he may not ever be the first, second, or even third option on a playoff team, he has plenty of connective qualities that keep opponents honest.

He possesses the ability to spread the defense with his pick-and-pop shooting and, when given the chance, he can make plays out of the short roll. He’s also improved his pull-up shooting, something that is necessary for players that want some involvement with the ball.

Kelly Oubre: Like his nickname, Tsunami Papi, fans have had to ride the wave that is Kelly Oubre. Oubre has had plenty of “highs” and “lows” since joining the team in 2021.

He improved some things this past season, like his ability to drive and attack the rim. Despite the change in shot profile, his calling card of shooting threes was still inconsistent, making only 32%.

Oubre has made it known that he wants to stay in Charlotte, which feels like an uncommon thing to say. He provides the good vibes and camaraderie that any team needs but it feels like his run with the Hornets has come to an end.

Dennis Smith Jr.: The late addition to last year’s roster turned out to be one of the most impressive players for the team. Smith Jr. provided the best individual defense for the Hornets and was one of the most impactful defenders in all of the NBA last season.⁷

Charlotte has had their fair share of issues with their backup point guard and it behooves them to take a hard look at bringing the North Carolinian back.

🎯 Potential Targets

I’m going to make sure I keep it within reason – even if one of these players could sign for more than the Mid-Level Exception. Let’s take a look at some free agents that could be on the radar and help Charlotte out.

Pie in the Sky Option

Bruce Brown, Guard/Wing, 26 years old

If a team with space desired Brown, they could offer more than Charlotte with their MLE. This move would be an “all-in” move that would likely be their only significant signing of the offseason.

Brown has shown so much versatility throughout his career. If you watched him in Brooklyn he was utilized as a small-ball big and operated out of the short-roll. If you watched him this past season in Denver, he pitched in as a backup point guard when Murray hit the bench.

He’s the type of player that any team could mold into unique roles within a system. Brown is also a very pesky defender, guarding almost any position on the floor. He would fill plenty of holes for the Hornets.

Local Option

Seth Curry, Guard, 32 years old

If Dennis Smith Jr. is out the door, the Hornets could look to replace him with another North Carolina native. It’s hard to imagine Curry replicating Smith Jr.’s defense and rim pressure (he wouldn’t) but he would provide something that is sorely needed — shooting.

Curry consistently hits three-pointers above the 40% mark and can do so off the catch or bounce. When he is run off the line, he also has an awesome midrange game. He and Jalen Brunson are the only two players from last season that shot 50% from the long-midrange and 40% on above-the-break threes (130 attempts minimum).

The question remains: does his experience and shooting make up for the lack of impact in other areas?

Under-the-Radar Options

Torrey Craig, Forward, 32 years old

If you want to overreact to one playoff series, go back and watch Craig in the opening round vs. the Clippers. He went nuclear, shooting a team-high 56% on threes and 12 of 16 on two-point attempts.

He is billed as a 3-and-D player, making most of his impact off the advantages of others. Maybe that better translates to playing beside players on a playoff team, like the Suns, but he’d fit seamlessly into Steve Clifford’s Hornets. Clifford would fall in love with his tenacious defense and his ability to play within a role, knocking down threes as LaMelo and Mark Williams collapse the defense.

The Suns may bring him back with his bird rights, but Charlotte should explore this option.

Shake Milton, Guard, 26 years old

Milton is another option if the backup point guard spot becomes vacant. Throughout his time in Philadelphia, he was in and out of the rotation. He may not excel at one particular skill but provides a steady presence as a combo guard.

When the ball is placed in his hands, his biggest asset may be getting all the way to the hoop with a variety of dribble moves, including a heavily featured euro-step. He can finish with either hand and doesn’t mind going up against contact.⁸ When he is placed off-ball as a secondary creator, teams have to be aware of his shot. Milton converted on 38% of his attempts from deep in 2022-23.

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I wanted to give a shout-out to mcley_Ma, otherwise known as Buzz Beat’s resident cap consultant. I ran a couple of things by him for clarity before sending out today’s newsletter.

1. 25% of $136 million equates to a starting salary of $34 million.

2. 30% of $136 million equates to a starting salary of $40.8 million.

3. 35% of $136 million equates to a starting salary of $47.6 million.

4. Teams have until today (June 29) to make qualifying offers to retain that restricted free status. Charlotte extended those qualifying offers to P.J. Washington, Miles Bridges, and Theo Maledon yesterday.

5. If the team desires, the Mid-Level Exception can be split among two players. This exception also allows a maximum of 5% raises.

6. Bridges has been suspended by the league for 30 games, with 20 already considered served.

7. According to Dunks & Threes, Smith Jr. had the 2nd-best D-EPM of +3.8.

8. Milton also draws fouls at a good rate — ranking in the 70th percentile last season.